Flynn on Russian diesel And Isaias refinery risks

Oct 9

After Trump's statement that Russian diesel is needed and prices are falling, Bret Baier interviews Phil Flynn about the announced arrangement. Flynn argues that unusually tight global diesel supply and high refining margins make additional barrels important, estimates eventual supply of 22 million barrels and expects it to move fairly quickly after sanctions are lifted. These are his estimates, including the tranche figures he gives. He says Russian exports have recently stopped because of Ukrainian refinery attacks and domestic retention, causing European demand to tighten U.S. supply. Baier then asks about Isaias and a Chevron refinery, citing an estimate that disruption could limit about two percent of U.S. refining capacity. Flynn says the storm's eastward turn reduces the worst refinery risk but warns that a shutdown could quickly affect pump prices. Shipping speed, supply relief, refinery damage and price effects remain predictions.

Fox's October 9 live coverage reports Hurricane Isaias at Category 3 with 115-mph winds offshore from the Florida Panhandle, stronger than the October 8 Category 2 occurrence. Ray reports worsening conditions at Destin, evacuations and emergency preparations; Norcross reports tornado-producing outer bands and flooding alerts, while Meier describes outages and a flash-flood warning south of Tallahassee. Landfall, up to nine feet of surge and wider inland effects are still forecast. Flynn separately warns that refinery disruption could affect already tight fuel markets, while saying the eastward track reduces the worst refinery exposure. Fox's account does not establish realized landfall or a refinery shutdown. ABC's later October 9 account also reports Category 3 intensification, hurricane-hunter and NOAA footage, worsening winds and water and the threat of inland flooding. Goldberg retains a possible strong-Category-2 versus major-Category-3 landfall and notes beginning weakening in the closing update. The subsequent landfall is a separate occurrence; the two complete weather accounts retain their own contemporaneous wording.